Course content

• Risks and opportunities
• What risk analysis is, and why it can help
• The steps to performing an analysis
• Basic probability ideas
• The basic probability rules
• Probability distributions
• Risk analysis techniques - their strengths and weaknesses:
• Semi-quantitative methods
• Monte Carlo simulation vs scenario analysis
• Example: why projects go over budget
• Decision trees, event trees
• Example: the value of obtaining extra information
• The resources needed to perform a risk analysis
• Understanding and using risk analysis results
• Evaluating your options
• Risk attitudes
• Multi-attribute decisions
• Decision sensitivity
• Optimising your risk management strategy
• What risk analysis can and cannot do
• The importance of communication

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