Vose Consulting - Risk analysis consultants

\| S ITE M AP \| C ONTACT U S \| LOCATIONS \| H OME \|

Links

Course overview
Training material
Course format
Who should attend
Prerequisites
Laptops
ModelAssist
Teaching philosophy
Course content
Course logistics
Public course schedule
Training brochure

Introduction to risk analysis with Crystall, @RISK or ModelRisk

Duration: 2 days

Course overview

This course is designed to introduce people with no prior knowledge of risk analysis to the modelling capabilities of Crystal Ball, @RISK or ModelRisk, its ideas and applications.

top

Training material

All lecture notes are provided as PowerPoint files. A CD of these files is provided to each participant. Printed handouts are also provided. The CD also contains all model files produced for the course. Any extra models developed during the course are downloadable from a private page on this web site dedicated to the course.

top

Course format

The course runs from 09:00 to 17:00 each day. Morning and afternoon coffee, and lunch are provided. Optional evening workshops on the first and second days allow extra time for running through example models and exercises.

top

Who should attend

The course covers the basics of risk analysis modelling using Crystal Ball, @RISK or ModelRisk. It is therefore useful to anyone who wishes to start producing risk analyses for their organisation, and those ask for risk analyses to be done, and who will make decisions using their results.

top

Prerequisites

All models are developed using Excel and Crystal Ball or @RISK. It is essential that all participants are reasonably proficient in Excel (see prerequisites). Both courses are very intensive. So to save time, for ModelRisk users it is important to make themselves familiar with the basic principles of ModelRisk by going through the Online Video Tutorials or the Quick Start Guide. Crystal Ball users can take the Crystal ball on-line tutorial that is available here. @RISK users can go through the on-line tutorial on the Palisade website.

top

Laptops

Participants are required to bring laptops loaded with Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint and Microsoft Excel and Decisioneering's Crystal Ball 7 or Palisade's @RISK 4.5 Professional installed, and with a CD drive. Trial copies of Crystal Ball and @RISK are available free of charge from Decisioneering and Palisade web-sites but these should not be installed too early as trial versions run out after 7 days for Crystal Ball and 10 days for @RISK.

top

ModelAssist

ModelAssist from Vose Consulting is a comprehensive risk analysis training and reference software tool. ModelAssist provides an in-depth explanation of all of the risk analysis concepts, techniques and methods introduced in the course and greatly complements the course material. It is particularly helpful to let participants learn the material that has been presented during the course at their own pace.

ModelAssist will be available to participants at a reduced price.

top

Teaching philosophy

All of Vose Consulting's courses aim to help the participants understand (rather than 'learn') risk analysis, which can only be achieved through a relaxed, informal and interactive environment, through plenty of examples and hands-on exercises where students apply and adapt what they have learned.

top

Course content

Day 1

Introduction to Crystal Ball/Excel or @RISK/Excel and risk modelling

A typical example of how Crystal Ball or @RISK provides better estimates

An explanation of the distributions available with Crystal Ball or @RISK

Creating distributions from expert opinion

Building models and using the results - some simple examples

Evening workshop: models and exercises

Day 2

Fitting distributions to data

Some common errors in risk modelling

An insurance problem

Modelling correlation between distributions

Modelling time series

Presenting risk analysis results: graphs, statistics, sensitivity analysis

top