Vose Consulting - Консультанты по анализу рисков

Публикации Дэвида Воуза с 1996 года

Hald, T and Vose, D. "A Bayesian Approach to Quantify the Contribution of Animal-food Sources to Human Salmonellosis". Accepted into Risk Analysis.
Vose, D. Risk Analysis: a Quantitative Guide, 2nd Ed J Wiley Chichester, England, 2002. In Japanese.
Co-author with J Acar, F Anthony, A Franklin, R Gupta, T Nicholls, Y Tamura, S Thompson, E J Threlfall, M van Vuuren, D G White, H Wegener and L Costarrica of other papers relating to antimicrobial resistance in Rev. sci. Off. int. Epiz. 2001, 20(3), namely:
- Antimicrobial resistance: responsible and prudent use of antimicrobial agents in veterinary medicine
- Antimicrobial resistance: monitoring the quantities of antimicrobials used in animal husbandry
- Antimicrobial resistance: standardisation and harmonisation of laboratory methodologies for the detection and quantification of antimicrobial resistance
- Antimicrobial resistance: harmonisation of national antimicrobial resistance monitoring and surveillance programmes in animals and in animal-derived food
Vose D, Acar J, Anthony F, Franklin A, Gupta R, Nicholls T, Tamura Y, Thompson S, Threlfall E J, van Vuuren M, White D G, Wegener H and Costarrica L (2001). ''Antimicrobial Resistance: risk analysis methodology for the potential impact on public health of antimicrobial resistant bacteria of animal origin", Rev. sci. Off. int. Epiz., 20(3), 811-827.
Vose, D. Risk Analysis: a Quantitative Guide, 2nd Ed J Wiley Chichester, England, 2000.
Vose, D. "Encefalopatias Espongiformes Transmissíveis: análise de risco", in Veterinária Téchnica Especial EET, Revista do Sindicato Nacional dos Médicos Veterinários 9 (5/6), September/December 1999.
Vose, D. "The Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to Microbial Food Safety", J Food Protection, 61(5) 1998. 640-648.
Vose, D. "Animal Health Risk Analysis Modelling", Intl. J for Project and Business Risk Management, Dec-1997.
Sutmoller, P and Vose, D: "Contamination of animal products: Minimum Infective Dose", Sci. Tech. Rev 16 (1), April 1997.
Vose, D: "Risk analysis in relation to the importation and exportation of animal products", Sci. Tech. Rev 16 (1), April 1997.
Van der Logt, P, Vose, D, Hathaway, S: "Risk Assessment Model for Human Infection with the Cestode Taenia saginata", J Food Protection, 60, 1997. 1110-1119
Vose, D. Quantitative Risk Analysis: a Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling, J Wiley Chichester, England, 1996.
Techniques editor for the UK Assn. of Project Managers' publication on Project Risk Management, 1996.
Vose, David and Wooldridge, Marion: "Book Review of Risk Assessment for Veterinary Biologicals, OIE", Preventive Veterinary Medicine 1089 (1996).
Chapters in various risk analysis texts.
Two papers in review.

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Доклады научных конференций Дэвида Воуза с 1996 года

Vose, D "Use of Microbial Risk Assessment in Decision-Making", 1st International Conference on Microbiological Risk Assessment: Foodborne Hazards, Maryland, USA, July 2002
Vose, D. "Current practice and the future of risk assessment: microbiological risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation", Japanese Soc Veterinary Epidemiology special lecture, Tokyo, Japan, November 2001
Vose, D. "An overview of risk assessment", SASRAM Annual Conference, Kobe, Japan, November 2001
Vose, D. "The application of risk analysis to animal health", BRIAN Symposium, Tokyo, Japan, November 2001
Vose, D. "Risk analysis methodology: OIE Ad-Hoc Group report", OIE Conference on Antimicrobial Resistance, Paris October 2001
Vose, D. "Risk assessment of Fluoroquinolone Resistant Campylobacter from Poultry", FDA Science Forum Washington D.C., February 2000
Vose, D. "Qualitative versus Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modelling", OIE Conference on Aquatic Animal Health, Paris, France, February 2000
Vose, D. "Risk assessment of Fluoroquinolone Resistant Campylobacter from Poultry", FDA Conference Washington D.C., December 1999
Vose, D. "Fitting Second Order Non-Parametric Distributions to Data using Bayes' Theorem", workshop at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, December, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, December 1998
Vose, D. Quantitative Risk Analysis Modelling, IDG, Denmark, Århus, September 1998
Vose, D. "Risk analysis and risk management in the IT industry", TransPower IT conference, Wellington, New Zealand, February 1998
Vose, D. "The Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to Microbial Food Safety", ILSI Risk Assessment Symposium, Seattle, USA, July 1996

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Награды

US-FDA Commissioners Special Citation, 2000

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Публикации Хуберта Гроенендаля

Huybert Groenendaal and Francisco Zagmutt, Spin of the Wheel: The Role and Reality of Monte Carlo Simulations
M.F. Weber, H. Groenendaal, H.J.W. van Roermund and M. Nielen. Simulation of Alternatives for the Dutch Johne's Disease Certification and Monitoring Program. PVM (accepted).
H. Groenendaal, and D. T. Galligan. Economic consequences of Johne's Disease control programs on mid-size dairy farms in the US. Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, December 15, 2003
H. Groenendaal, M. Nielen, and J. W. Hesselink. Development of the Dutch Johne's disease control program supported by a simulation model. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 60: 69-90, 2003
H. Groenendaal, M. Nielen, D. T. Galligan and J. W. Hesselink. Johne's disease control: a simulation approach. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 54: 225-245, 2002. (most downloaded paper of PVM in 2002).
A. Lindberg, H. Groenendaal, U. Emanuelson and S. Allenius. Identification of dams carrying fetuses persistently infected with bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) applying an indirect ELISA, 1999. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 51: 199-214, 2001
H. Groenendaal, D. T. Galligan, H. Mulder, 2004. An Economic Spreadsheet model to Determine Optimal Breeding and Replacement Decisions for Dairy Cattle. Journal of Dairy Science 87:2146-2157.

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Доклады научных конференций Хуберта Гроенендаля

H. Groenendaal, Corporate Finance Risks Analysis with Crystal Ball - Are We Adding Value?, June 13-14, 2005, Crystal Ball Users Conference, Denver, CO.
H. Groenendaal, and Vose, D, The Use of Data in Quantitative Animal and Animal Product Import Risk Analysis, March 30, 2005, Pre-SVEPM Workshop, Nairn, Scotland.
H. Groenendaal, Control Programs for Johne's disease, March 9-11, 2005, Western Canadian Dairy Seminar, Red Deer, AB, Canada.
H. Groenendaal, and Galligan, D.T. Making Informed Culling Decisions, March 9-11, 2005, Western Canadian Dairy Seminar, Red Deer, AB, Canada.
H. Groenendaal, Control of Johne's disease: Use of the JohneSSim model, April 14th, 2004, Seminar at the EpiCenter, Massey University, Palmerston, New Zealand.
H. Groenendaal, Johne's Disease Control: How Can Risk Analysis Help Us Make Better Informed Decisions? April 4th, 2004. Presentation at the Annual US Johne's Disease Working Group Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
H. Groenendaal. Controlling Johne's Disease: Results of Computer Modelling. Autumn Conference of the British Cattle Veterinary Association, October 23-26th, 2003, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
H. Groenendaal, and D. T. Galligan. Economic consequences of Johne's disease control programs on dairy herds in Pennsylvania. Presented at the International animal agriculture and food science conference (IAAFSC), July 25-28, 2001, Indianapolis, IN.
H. Groenendaal, and D. T. Galligan. Real options analysis applied to dairy cow breeding and replacement decisions. Presented at the International animal agriculture and food science conference (IAAFSC), July 25-28, 2001, Indianapolis, IN.
H. Groenendaal, M. Nielen, and J. W. Hesselink. Development of the Dutch Johne's disease control program supported by a simulation model. Proceedings Society of Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, March 2001.
H. Groenendaal, and D. T. Galligan. Economic consequences of Johne's disease control programs on Pennsylvanian dairy herds. In: Proceedings of the 101st annual Penn Conference, Philadelphia, January 2001.
H. Groenendaal and D.T. Galligan. A new perspective on replacement decisions in dairy cattle - real options, Annual meeting of the Pennsylvanian Agricultural Diagnostic and Laboratory System (PADLS), Penn State, PA, October 2000.
H. Groenendaal, A.W. Jalvingh, M. Nielen, H.S. Horst. A simulation model to study the epidemiological and economic consequences of Johne's disease control programs. Proceedings 9th International Symposium ISVEE, August 6-11, 2000, Breckenridge, USA, 590-592.
H. Groenendaal, A.W. Jalvingh, M. Nielen, H.S. Horst. A pilot study on paratuberculosis control on dairy farms in the Netherlands: evaluation of strategies using simulation. Proceedings (11) studiedag Veterinaire Epidemiologie en Economie (VEEC), Bilthoven, December 9 1998. A.M. Henken en E.G. Evers (eds), 73-74.
A. Lindberg, H. Groenendaal, U. Emanuelson and S. Allenius. Identification of dams carrying fetuses persistently infected with bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) applying an indirect ELISA, 1999. Paper presented at Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (SVEPM), Bristol, March 1999.
A. A. Dijkhuizen, H. Groenendaal, A.W. Jalvingh and G. Zimmer, (1997). Modeling the economics of the BVD-virus control at farm level, Paper presented at European symposium on control of BVD-virus infection in cattle, Lillehammer, September 3-5, 1997. Abstracts: 58

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Публикации Франсиско Загмута

Huybert Groenendaal and Francisco Zagmutt, Spin of the Wheel: The Role and Reality of Monte Carlo Simulations
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., Carpenter T. E., Farver T. B., and Hedrick R. P. (2005). Spatial and temporal variations in sea lice (Copepoda: Caligidae) infestations of three salmonid species farmed in net pens in southern Chile. Dis Aquat Organ 64, 163-73.
Crossley B. M., Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., Fyock T. L., Whitlock R. H., and Gardner I. A. (2005). Fecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis by dairy cows. Vet Microbiol 107, 257-63.
Gilad O., Yun S., Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., Leutenegger C. M., Bercovier H., and Hedrick R. P. (2004). Concentrations of a Koi herpesvirus (KHV) in tissues of experimentally infected Cyprinus carpio koi as assessed by real-time TaqMan PCR. Dis Aquat Organ 60, 179-87.
Kelley G. O., Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., Leutenegger C. M., Adkison M. A., Baxa D. V., and Hedrick R. P. (2004). Identification of a serine protease gene expressed by Myxobolus cerebralis during development in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Dis Aquat Organ 59, 235-48.
Kelley G. O., Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., Leutenegger C. M., Myklebust K. A., Adkison M. A., McDowell T. S., Marty G. D., Kahler A. L., Bush A. L., Gardner I. A., and Hedrick R. P. (2004). Evaluation of five diagnostic methods for the detection and quantification of Myxobolus cerebralis. J Vet Diagn Invest 16, 202-11.
Pinto J., Herrera J., Zagmutt-Vergara F.J. , Urcelay S., Sotomayor G., Maretto D., Cassigoli J., Maino M., Contreras G. (2003) Quantitative risk assessment of introduction of salmonids diseases to Chile. Final report to Chilean Ministry of Fisheries, http://www.fip.cl/pdf/informes/inffinal%202001-08.pdf

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Избранные доклады научных конференций Франсиско Загмута

Kelley G. O, Adkison M. A., Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., Leutenegger C. M., Bethel J. W., Myklebust K. A., McDowell T. S., Hedrick R. P. (2006) Evaluation of quantitative real-time PCR for rapid assessments of the exposure of sentinel fish to Myxobolus cerebralis, Parasitol Res (online first) March 2006, 1-8.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J. Epidemiology and Informatics: Working together to improve animal health. (Keynote speaker) International Conference of Epidemiology, October 6-8, Morelia, México, 2005.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., M.A. Schoenbaum, W. T. Disney, M.D. Salman (2004) Modeling highly infectious animal diseases: The value of the inclusion of heterogeneous animal populations. Proceedings, CRWAD Chicago, IL, November 14-16.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., M.A. Schoenbaum, M.D. Salman. Risk protection in aquaculture: The role of disease spread modeling. Aquaculture 2004, Honolulu, March 1-5, 2004.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J. Epidemiology of sea lice on farmed salmonids in southern Chile. Triennial meeting International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE 10), Viña del Mar, Chile, November 17-21, 2003.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J., M.A. Schoenbaum, W. T. Disney, M.D. Salman. The economic performance of different ring vaccination responses and slaughter delays in eradicating foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. Triennial meeting International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE 10), Viña del Mar, Chile, November 17-21, 2003.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J. Spatial and temporal variations of Sea Lice infestations (Copepoda: Caligidae) on sea pen farmed salmonids in southern Chile. V Salmon culture meeting, Pto.Varas, Chile, October 2-4, 2002.
Zagmutt-Vergara F. J. and Urcelay, S. New methodologies for risk analysis applied to diseases of aquatic organisms. IV Salmon culture meeting and XI Chilean conference of Veterinary Medicine, Pto. Varas, Chile, 25-27 October 2000.