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In order to plan for the future, businesses typically need to forecast demands for their products, the actions of their competitors, the costs of labour and material, economic trends, exchange rates, etc. Any forecasting will involve a level of uncertainty, and having a good appreciation of the uncertainty in one’s forecasts helps in making better and faster decisions.
The trick to good forecasting is to combine strong analytical skills with healthy skepticism. Vose Consulting has a long history of producing sophisticated forecasting models where appropriate, and where sophistication can be justified by the robustness of assumptions and the quality of data. However, there is a balance to be found between sophistication and user-understanding, between statistical robustness and the number and strength assumptions.
Forecasting can help management in making decisions by -
- Identifying patterns in terms of trends, cycles, seasonality and randomness in business data.
- Discovering relationships among important variables that affect the subject of interest.
Vose Consulting has extensive experience in applying both quantitative (statistical modeling) and qualitative (scenario analysis) forecasting to areas such as -
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Production planning
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Budgeting
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Strategic planning
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Sales analysis
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Inventory control
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Marketing planning
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Logistics planning
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Purchasing
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Materials requirement planning
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Product planning
DVM, MPVM
Toll Free (US) +1 866 259 7434
Tel +1 303 440 8524
Vose Consulting US Office
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At Vose Consulting we believe in partnering relationships with our clients: that is, we strive to structure our clients' use of our time to maximize their benefit. To that end we prefer to work, wherever possible, alongside the client, demonstrating and teaching as we go the methods we use and sharing as much of the work as possible with the clients' personnel. This maximizes the transfer of knowledge, so that the client is better able to understand our work, and more capable of doing future projects by themselves. We aim for long-term relationships with our clients. To view the full list of our clients in this application, please follow the link at the end of the list “View All Clients”.
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- Anacorp Pharmaceuticals, USA
- Zurich Financial services
- Bank of Colombia
- Palamon
- 21st Century, USA
- View all clients
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Problem:
An electronics manufacturer with a large international sales team wanted to forecast annual sales commission payouts more accurately. The company's compensation system includes over 100 different pay plan structures. The legacy forecasting system was largely based on single-value, best estimates by sales management that provided inaccurate results and no insight to the range and probabilities of future commission liabilities.
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Vose Consulting has developed a number of inbound call volumes (for call centers) forecasting models (one for an insurance firm, 21st Century insurance for example). One model forecasted the call volume for the next 1 year, another model forecasted it for the next 2 weeks in 10 minute intervals.
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