Upcoming Courses

Quantitative Risk Analysis and Disease Modeling in Epidemiology:
(Fort Collins, CO, USA, June 25-29, 2007)
- ONLY 1 SPACE REMAINING!!!!
- This 5-day course will cover the key principles of quantitative risk analysis in epidemiology and the most important risk modeling principles, methods and techniques available. In addition, the course will discuss the theory and practical methods to model the spread of diseases among populations. -
Instructor: Huybert Groenendaal, PhD, MBA, MSc
Instructor: Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM

Curso de Análisis de Riesgo Cuantitativo Aplicado (in Spanish):
(Santiago, Chile, August, 29-31, 2007)
- Este curso práctico de 3 días cubrirá los principios más elevantes del análisis de riesgo cuantitativo, diseño de modelos de riesgo, y de simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Entre otros temas, el curso discutirá mejores prácticas en diseño de modelos, selección de distribuciones apropiadas, opinión de expertos y errores más comunes y como prevenirlos. Los ejemplos y ejercicios usados durante la clase incluirán variadas áreas de aplicación del análisis de riesgo, resultando en un curso muy aplicado y apropiado para una variada audiencia -
Instructor: Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM

Animal Agriculture and Food Safety Risk Analysis:
(Fort Collins, CO, USA, September 3-14, 2007)
- The course is split into two self-contained modules. Module 1 lasts five days and provides the basic principles of risk assessment and where it fits into the risk analysis process. Module 2 also lasts five days and has been greatly revised this year to include our research on model frameworks and model validation. This module should appeal to those who have already attended one of Vose Consulting's previous courses. The focus is less on the predictive microbiology and dose-response models, and more on producing models that risk managers can put their faith in -
Instructor: Huybert Groenendaal, PhD, MBA, MSc
Instructor: Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM

Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis
(Philadelphia, PA, USA, October 1-3, 2007)
- In the current economic environment, understanding and managing risk and opportunities are, more than ever, essential to companies' future survival and prosperity. In this course, we will teach how risk analysis can be used to quantitatively assess the uncertainty surrounding financial decisions (new projects, acquisitions, etc). We will show how to identify and analyze key uncertainty drivers, which forms the basis for efficient risk and opportunity management strategies -
Instructor: Huybert Groenendaal, PhD, MBA, MSc

Custom courses at your location:
- Vose Consulting is often asked to organized in-house courses on specific risk analysis related topics. We can provide in-house training either in the form of a series of workshops or lectures. You can choose off-the-shelf modules from general courses or have the material tailored specifically to the types of problems you often face -

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Recent Projects

Below are listed two recently completed projects. Please see here for more examples of how we help clients understand their risks and make better decisions.

1. Mine Production Forecasting

Problem:

Mining companies make important management decisions without exactly knowing what is going to be their production in the coming months. Hence, companies rely on monthly and quarterly forecasts to support their decisions under different risk scenarios. The production of mining products such as ore is very complex, involving many factors such as the reliability of the many types of machinery used, the geology of the area being mined, and personnel availability, among many others. Such processes must be explicitly modeled to accomplish a correct forecast. After several attempts to design an accurate forecasting system, a large mining company sought help from Vose Consulting to obtain a more realistic production forecast.

Solution and result:

Our consultants worked closely with the company's experts to understand the interactions among machinery, geology, and other factors affecting production. After extensive data analysis, we discovered a methodology to reliably forecast the production of different materials in the mine. A combination of empirical statistical models, with advanced simulation methods resulted in a forecasting model that has successfully predicted actual mine production with a high degree of accuracy. The Client is currently employing the forecasting model, needing virtually no support from Vose Consulting, and is planning on implementing the model in other facilities across the country.

Types of organizations that can use the same expertise:

• Mining companies
• Manufacturing firms
• Other firms that need accurate production forecasts, particularly when complex interactions should be modeled to obtain a correct forecast

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2. Metal Processing Optimization

Problem:

A large metal processing plant combines a number of small pots of metal into a few larger pots of metal, several times in a shift. The level of contaminants which cause impurities in each small pot is known. Our client wanted to know how to best combine and mix the pots into larger containers so as to optimize the total amount of metal produced at a purity level above some desired threshold. Naturally, allocating a liquid material to containers involves several complex constraints (i.e. no empty pots, certain discrete number of tons per container, etc) that need to be included in the optimization model.

Solution:

Vose Consulting developed a model that successfully optimizes the allocation of the contents of the small pots into the large containers. A number of constraints were considered including the capacities of the large containers, the maximum number of times the contents of each smaller pot can be split and the potential uncertainty of the measured impurities. Given the relatively large user base of the application and the number of different situations and constraints, the model included a very user friendly graphical user interface.

Result:

The model implemented by our company is allowing the customer to effectively optimize the allocation process, and the model is being used and modified as needed without re-engagement from Vose Consulting. The project is expected to provide the client a substantial increase in profitability from this optimization.

Types of organizations that can use the same expertise:

• Broad application for large material processing operations:
• Pharmaceutical
• Oil and gas
• Chemical
• Metals
• Food production

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Contact Information

For additional information or make suggestions, please feel free to contact us:

Website:
www.voseconsulting.com
Email:

Phones:
+1 866 259 7434 (Toll Free, US only)
+1 303 440 8524 (From outside US)
Fax:
+1 303 440 0320

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