Upcoming Courses

Quantitative Risk Analysis and Disease Modeling in Epidemiology:
(Fort Collins, CO, USA, June 25-29, 2007)
- This 5-day course will cover the key principles of quantitative risk analysis in epidemiology and the most important risk modeling principles, methods and techniques available. In addition, the course will discuss the theory and practical methods to model the spread of diseases among populations -
Instructor: Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM

Curso de Análisis de Riesgo Cuantitativo Aplicado (in Spanish):
(Santiago, Chile, August, 29-31, 2007)
- Este curso práctico de 3 días cubrirá los principios más elevantes del análisis de riesgo cuantitativo, diseño de modelos de riesgo, y de simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Entre otros temas, el curso discutirá mejores prácticas en diseño de modelos, selección de distribuciones apropiadas, opinión de expertos y errores más comunes y como prevenirlos. Los ejemplos y ejercicios usados durante la clase incluirán variadas áreas de aplicación del análisis de riesgo, resultando en un curso muy aplicado y apropiado para una variada audiencia -
Instructor: Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM

Animal Agriculture and Food Safety Risk Analysis:
(Fort Collins, CO, USA, September 3-14, 2007)
- The course is split into two self-contained modules. Module 1 lasts five days and provides the basic principles of risk assessment and where it fits into the risk analysis process. Module 2 also lasts five days and has been greatly revised this year to include our research on model frameworks and model validation. This module should appeal to those who have already attended one of Vose Consulting's previous courses. The focus is less on the predictive microbiology and dose-response models, and more on producing models that risk managers can put their faith in -
Instructor: Huybert Groenendaal, PhD, MBA, MSc
Instructor: Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM

Corporate Risk Analysis:
(Philadelphia, PA, USA, October 1-3, 2007)
- In the current economic environment, understanding and managing risk and opportunities are, more than ever, essential to companies' future survival and prosperity. In this course, we will teach how risk analysis can be used to quantitatively assess the uncertainty surrounding financial decisions (new projects, acquisitions, etc). We will show how to identify and analyze key uncertainty drivers, which forms the basis for efficient risk and opportunity management strategies -
Instructor: Huybert Groenendaal, PhD, MBA, MSc

Custom courses at your location:
- Vose Consulting is often asked to organized in-house courses on specific risk analysis related topics. We can provide in-house training either in the form of a series of workshops or lectures. You can choose off-the-shelf modules from general courses or have the material tailored specifically to the types of problems you often face -

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Vose Consulting to Present Lectures

April 23-34, London, UK
David Vose, Senior Partner, will be presenting two lectures at the 2007 Palisade Users conference in London on April 23-23:
•  @RISK in Insurance and Finance with ModelRisk
•  Modelling Uncertain Time Series

May 21-23, Denver, CO, USA
Vose Consulting staff will be presenting three lectures at the 2007 Crystal Ball Users Conference in Denver, CO, USA on May 21-23:
•  Solving Complex Risk Analysis Problems in Insurance and Finance, David Vose, Senior Partner
•  Three Must Knows in Quantitative Risk Analysis, Huybert Groenendaal, Partner
•  Optimizing Pharmaceutical Sales Force Territories, Francisco J Zagmutt, Senior Risk Analyst

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Recent Projects

Below are listed two recently completed projects. Please see here for more examples of how we help clients understand their risks and make better decisions.

1. Project Cost Risk Assessment

Problem:

A large energy firm planned to build a $500M+ natural gas pipeline. There were considerable risks associated with the project. Based on experience, the firm knew that project costs often exceed budgeted costs by a considerable margin. The firm therefore requested that Vose Consulting perform a project cost risk analysis.

Solution:

Vose Consulting helped the client obtain and identify relevant cost and risk data. In close cooperation with the client, this data was used develop a Monte Carlo quantitative project risk analysis. The model output provided a range of probable project costs as well as identified the areas of highest over-budget risk.

Result:

As a result, the client greatly increased its understanding of the main risks and possible risk management options. It was determined that the original budget had a very low probability of being met! During the course of the work, the client also learned how to perform project costs risk analysis in-house and currently has several people dedicated to performing these types of analyses.

Types of organizations that can use the same expertise:

• Any client that has large capital investments and would like to:
• Better understand the risks associated with the project costs and schedule.
• Set realistic budgets and contingency costs that are directly related to the risks of the project.
• Manage project risks better by having a clear understanding what drivers mostly influence the project risks.

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2. Sales Territory Optimization Model

Problem:

Pharmaceutical companies rely on their sales representatives (SR) to promote their products to the physician community. SR's usually have assigned geographical territories where they regularly do their promotion work. Each territory may have different numbers of physicians, proportions of specialists, numbers of specialists in different class categories, distances to travel, and market size, among many other factors. Since a large percentage of the SR's salary is based on the economic performance of their territories, making a fair and efficient allocation of territories is key for the success of the promotion operations, and to ensure that all SR's get fair territories. The regional sales management for a large pharmaceutical company retained Vose Consulting to produce a tool for performing optimal territory assignment.

Solution:

A model was developed that allowed the client to optimize the allocation of sales force territories in different regions of the country considering multiple variables and input from the sales team and other parties involved in the process. Special care was put into the user friendliness and flexibility of the model, so any user could apply it to different situations.

Result:

The model was delivered to the client along with documentation and training on use of the tool. This is allowing the customer to effectively use and modify the model as needed without re-engagement from Vose Consulting. The project has been so successful that the parent company is exploring ways to also deploy the model in other countries.

Types of organizations that can use the same expertise:

• Broad application for medium to large territory based sales organizations:
• Pharmaceutical
• Computer
• Telecommunications
• Software/IT

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Contact Information

For additional information or make suggestions, please feel free to contact us:

Website:
www.voseconsulting.com or
www.voseconsulting.com
Email:

Phones:
+1 866 259 7434 (Toll Free, US only)
+1 303 440 8524 (From outside US)
Fax:
+1 303 440 0320

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