Vose Consulting - Risk analysis consultants

Advanced risk modelling workshop

Duration: 1 week

Workshop overview

This is a workshop for risk analysts who are already very accomplished in the mathematical modelling of risk, and who have risk modelling problems that they wish to discuss amongst peers.

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Training material

Lecture notes will be customized depending on the needs of the course-participants, and are provided as PowerPoint files. A CD of these files is provided to each participant. Printed handouts are also provided. This will be a very interactive and dynamic workshop. Any extra models developed during the course are downloadable from a private page on this web site dedicated to the course.

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Workshop format

Participants will be asked to give a short presentation of the modelling issues that they wish to address, and we will discuss solutions to these issues together or in break-out groups. The workshop will nominally run from 09:00 to 18:00 with a mixture of break-out groups and class discussions as necessary. However, as there is little formal structure, we may choose to 'order in a pizza' and continue for as long as is useful. David Vose, or another participant, may give some lectures to explain any topics that are of common interest to the whole or part of the group.

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Who should attend

The workshop is designed to appeal to very experienced risk modellers who have all the readily obtainable skills (see, for example, David Vose's book 'Risk analysis' for an example of the material of which they should be familiar), who want to investigate how to resolve complex or unusual problems that they are faced with.

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Prerequisites

It is expected that all models will be written in either the Excel/Crystal Ball or Excel/@RISK or WinBUGS environment, although workers using other risk modelling environments like Analytica should also be able to get a lot from the workshop. Applicants are requested to submit an explanation of the modelling issues they wish to address, together with a CV if they are unknown to us, so that we can assure compatibility between participants and thus fruitful discussion.

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Laptops

Participants are required to bring laptops loaded with Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint and Microsoft Excel and Decisioneering's Crystal Ball 7 or Palisade's @RISK 4.5 Professional installed, and with a CD drive. It would be helpful to have an Ethernet connection too for the movement of files and presentations. Models, data and presentations should be brought to the workshop on a CD.

Trial copies of Crystal Ball and @RISK are available free of charge from Decisioneering and Palisade web-sites but these should not be installed too early as trial versions run out after 7 days for Crystal Ball and 10 days for @RISK. We can arrange copies of @RISK at a 20% discount should you wish to purchase.

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ModelAssist

ModelAssist from Vose Consulting is a comprehensive risk analysis training and reference software tool. ModelAssist ADVANCED provides an in-depth explanation of many risk analysis concepts, techniques and methods and will therefore most likely greatly complements the modelling issues discussed during this workshop. It is particularly helpful as a reference for participants of the material that has been presented during the course.

ModelAssist will be available to participants at a reduced price.

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Teaching philosophy

All of Vose Consulting's courses and workshops aim to help the participants understand (rather than 'learn') risk analysis, which can only be achieved through a relaxed, informal and interactive environment, through plenty of examples and hands-on exercises where students apply and adapt what they have learned.

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Workshop content

The specific content of this workshop will depend on the modelling issues of the course participants. See also the Workshop format (link to paragraph above).

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