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@2)  calf hygiene - epidemiology!!$  Strategies: C-0 =  No control C-1 = Step 1 in year 1 C-2 = C1 & Step 2 in year 2 C-3 = C2 & Step 3 in year 3>  Pb P b@2)  calf hygiene - epidemiology!!$  Strategies: C-0 =  No control C-1 = Step 1 in year 1 C-2 = C1 & Step 2 in year 2 C-3 = C2 & Step 3 in year 3>  Pb P bB2)  calf hygiene  economics ( ) "$$ 3)  vaccination $ Under US situation Strategies: V-0 =  No control V-1 = Vaccine increases age to become infectious with year V-2 = Vaccine increases age to become infectious with 1 year V-3 = Vaccine increases age to become infectious with 2 year V-4 = Vaccine decreases probability of becoming infectious with 50% V-5 = Combined effects of V-2 and V-4 p P P  P7 P 7>3)  vaccination - epidemiology $ Strategies: V-0 =  No control V-1 = Vaccine increases age to become infectious with year V-2 = Vaccine increases age to become infectious with 1 year V-3 = Vaccine increases age to become infectious with 2 year V-4 = Vaccine decreases probability of becoming infectious with 50% V-5 = Combined effects of V-2 and V-4 >  P7 P 7@3)  vaccination  economics ($)!!$  :Conclusions   test-and-cull $ X Test-and-cull based strategies not effective Test-and-cull based strategies expensiveY Y8Conclusions   calf hygiene $ 6Improved calf hygiene management is effective in decreasing the prevalence of Johne s disease Improved calf hygiene management is economically attractive  6Conclusions   vaccination $ yVaccination does not considerably decrease prevalence Vaccination at farms with high prevalence economically attractive z z Discussion $  Test-and-cull programs (and vaccination if possible) fairly easy to implement Improving calf hygiene strategies: need motivation from farmers are harder to organize Nq 4  q4 Discussion $  JohneSSim model: Is based on many assumptions Identifies  knowledge gaps Is flexible to be used in different situations N k  k Discussion $  Some assumptions: No effect of control on losses due to other disease taken into account No losses considered for potential effects on  consumer confidence No changes to current export markets considered T Z Z ZJohneSSim model$ ` JohneSSim model supported the decision making by providing insight in uncertainties and risks P ^  3Current situation$  Netherlands US :    Questions? $  /H\      !"#$%&'P ` TTrff` TTrh-[ʬ` 333MMM` TTr8r-[ffV>` TTrQ[-[` TTrTz<7FӥaG|` TTr4eXQƄΗ|aHb>?" dd@,? 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