|
Duration: 2 weeks
The course is split into two self-contained modules. The course has been significantly revised, particularly in Module 2 to include our research on model frameworks and model validation.
Module 1 lasts five days and provides the basic principles of risk assessment and where it fits in to the risk analysis process. It also looks at resource, strategy and communication issues that management face in risk assessment. It covers some basic modeling principles, and gets the participants used to the risk analysis modeling environment (in this case Crystal Ball with Excel or @RISK with Excel, but the lessons apply equally well to other modeling environments). We also look at essential probability and statistics theory and various stochastic processes. This module covers material that is essential for Module 2.
Module 1 will be useful for analysts starting out in animal health, microbial, antimicrobial or toxicological food safety risk assessment who have some basic knowledge of simulation modeling and to risk managers in general. This is a key module that should be taken before attending Module 2.
Module 2 also lasts five days and has been greatly revised and should appeal to those who have already attended one of Vose Consulting's previous courses. The focus is less on the predictive microbiology and dose-response models, and more on producing models that risk managers can put their faith in. Thus, we introduce a framework for model construction that we developed for the USDA to help find the simplest model that will adequately solve the manager's problem. The framework offers a way to demonstrate consistency of approach despite some models appearing to be very different and addresses how to structure a model that makes the best use of available data. We will also introduce a method new to food safety for indicating to a risk manager whether, given the myriad assumptions and approximations, the quality of data and level of scientific knowledge of the issue, the quantitative risk analysis results are sufficiently robust to be relied upon.
Module 2 provides an in-depth knowledge of the modeling techniques necessary for international level risk assessments. We critically look at risk models, and the participants are encouraged to bring along modeling problems they are currently faced with. Attendance of Module 1 or prior knowledge of the material covered in Module 1 will be needed. If you are considering only attending Module 2, please run through the short self-test to make sure you have the knowledge provided in Module 1.
This module is suited to those already familiar with spreadsheets, who have some modeling experience and who are interested in developing these abilities further. The module content will enable the participants to produce realistic, professional quality models. It is designed to encourage the modeler to develop creative problem solving skills through plenty of problem exercises.
Please review the level of computer (Excel and Windows) knowledge necessary before attending the course. Participants should review this information well in advance. The requirements are very basic but ensuring that all participants arrive with this basic level prevents us from wasting too much time on familiarization with Excel rather than learning about risk modeling.
Further details on the modules are provided below.
top |
