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| Below, we briefly outline a number of our capabilities. At Vose Consulting, our primary objective is to help our clients achieve their goals through more informed decisions. Choosing a consultant with a proven track record in this is one step to guaranteeing success. We have many years of experience working with many different clients and we are happy to discuss what we can do for you! |
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Risk Analysis techniques have applications in many aspects of animal health. The most important area that risk analysis is used in animal health is in import risk analysis. Import risk analysis provides countries with an objective, transparent and defensible method of assessing the disease risks associated with the importation of animals and animal products. Vose Consulting has played a leading role in the development of this field and the main WTO international guidelines on Animal Health Risk Analysis are based on David Vose 's book "Risk Analysis - a quantitative guide" and the courses he teaches. Vose Consulting has not only been involved in numerous projects related to animal health risk analysis, but also offers several courses related to this topic.
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Microbial risk analysis risk attempts to determine the risks associated with microbial contamination of food and food products. Vose Consulting not only has made important contributions to the development of this field (for example we have led the development of WHO international guidelines), but also use microbial risk analysis techniques in a wide range of projects (see for examples here). Because of our international reputation in microbial risk analysis, we are also often asked to give presentations, appear as expert witnesses, and review microbial risk assessments.
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Resistance of microbes against antimicrobials is a global public health concern. Antimicrobial risk analysis attempts so estimate the role that antimicrobials that are administered to animals, play in the risks of antimicrobial resistance in humans. Vose Consulting has led the development of the OIE international guidelines for antimicrobial risk analyses. In addition, Vose Consulting has played a crucial role in an important antimicrobial risk analysis as outlined here, and has often spoken on the topic.
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Vose Consulting provides expert witness services and litigation support. Our acknowledged expertise and years of experience in risk analysis, combined with our consultancy neutrality, provide us with practical understanding, substantial credibility and the ability to explain complex risk analysis in simple terms, to a jury or judge. We are prepared to testify, research, organize teams of experts, provide document production and define litigation strategy.
Recently, Vose Consulting successfully provided expert witness services or served as a key risk adviser at two WTO court cases in an international dispute and in a US federal court case between the US government and an industry opponent (read more here). We greatly value our reputation for providing an honest and unbiased opinion. Indeed, the Australian government employed Mr Vose's services in a recent hearing despite having lost a WTO court case some years ago to Canada where Mr. Vose was acting for the Canadian government.
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Forecasting is typically used to predict the size of quantities over time (time-series forecasting), or to make predictions about differences among people, firms, or other objects (cross-sectional data). Forecasting can be used for many purposes, including support of your planning or as part of a financial or operational risk analysis.
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In the current economic environment, understanding and managing risk and opportunity are, more than ever, essential to a company's future survival and prosperity. Corporate Finance Risk Analysis can be used to quantitatively assess and compare the uncertainty surrounding your financial decision options (new projects, mergers and acquisitions, etc). In contrast with traditional valuation approaches such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, risk analysis provides you with a better understanding of risks and uncertainties through their explicit identification and quantification. This enables business managers to make more informed and hence better investment decisions. Corporate finance risk analysis includes, among others, the assessment of uncertainty in input parameters, time-series forecasting, eliciting and modelling expert estimates, and determination of DCF measures of value that incorporate the identified uncertainties. By properly taking into account risks and uncertainties in financial decision making, your company can create a considerable competitive advantage by incorporating risk in your capital investment decisions.
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While Real Options analysis has received a lot of attentions in the last few years, it is actually just one of the many financial techniques one can use in risk analysis. A strength and unique attribute of the Real Options Analysis approach is its ability to account for the value that management bring to an organisation in responding to new environments. In other words, it bridges the gap between decision making under uncertainty and financial valuations. Similarly to a financial option, the real options approach takes into account that high risk project with a higher upside potential have greater economic value than low risk projects if the down-side can be avoided by managerial decision making. Since the real options theory is fairly new, there are few ready-to-use methods and approaches. At Vose Consulting, we combine current real options theory and simulation-based risk analysis, which allows us to considerably extend the capabilities and applicability of the real options approach. The calculation of option values through simulations (using the relevant risk drivers and their correlations) allows us to solve very complicated problems, which could not be solved using more traditional methods. At Vose Consulting, we have for example used the real options approach to optimize profits under uncertainty of water use in a hydro-electric power station chain.
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Companies spend billions of dollars on marketing their products each year. Every marketing strategy can be measured on three dimensions: whether it increases the number of customers; whether it increases the average transaction amount; and whether it increases the frequency of repurchase. With techniques from risk analysis and marketing research, we can help you determine where your marketing efforts should focus. Risk analysis can also tell you how efficient your marketing programme is. For example, when conducting surveys, risk analysis could be very useful in determining the optimal size of the sample, its content, and the value of additional information can help you analyse the results of your survey. Marketing risk analysis can be a stand-alone project or part of a more involved financial valuation.
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Risks and opportunities go hand in hand. Many development projects strive to advance current capabilities and achieve something that hasn't been done before. The opportunity for advancement cannot be achieved without taking risks. Risk in itself is not bad; risk is in fact essential to progress. However, we must learn to balance the possible negative consequences of risk against the potential benefits of its associated opportunity. Risk analysis can help you get a better insight into the risks and uncertainties of new product developments. New product development is associated with the problem of "no or very limited historical or preliminary data". However, risk analysis offers means of addressing this problem by using its flexibility in modelling and approaches.
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